Sunday, December 30, 2012

NFL Week 17 Fantasy Predictions: Top 5 Over/Under

     Most fantasy football leagues ended last week, but there are a few that go all the way through week 17.  I figured I would do a prediction piece for it just in case there was some interest.  Here are my top 5 predictions for both over and under projected fantasy scores:

                                                                  OVER

QB Tony Romo
QB Tony Romo (projected 23.24 fantasy points)-  Romo is going to have to have a huge game to get his team past the Redskins and into the playoffs.  He certainly has the ability, but he does have that history of choking in big moments.  The Redskins secondary is beatable and even with DeMarco Murray back, Romo will have to throw the ball a ton.  I don't think the Cowboys pull this one out, but I expect it to go down to the wire.

RB CJ Spiller (projected 22.02 fantasy points)-  The Jets are weak against the run and Spiller tore them up in their meeting earlier in the year.  Both these teams have pretty much thrown in the towel, so I don't expect the Jets defense to put up much of a fight.   They have already made every other running back in the league look like Barry Sanders and I don't expect that to start changing now.

RB LeSean McCoy (projected 18.45 fantasy points)-  I expect McCoy and the Eagles to show up for this game.  I think they would enjoy spoiling their rival Giants playoff hopes.  It will also be Andy Reid's last game as Head Coach.  They have the motivation to play hard and the Giants have not been good lately vs. the run.  I think McCoy has a big game.

WR James Jones
WR James Jones (projected 9.64 fantasy points)- Jones has had a couple of monster games this month.  Minnesota is weak against the pass and Rodgers throws the ball a lot.  The Green Bay receiver corps. is still a bit banged up, which could mean more opportunities for Jones.

RB Alfred Morris (projected 12.23 fantasy points)-  Morris has become an even bigger part of the Redskin offense since RG3 got injured.  I think that will continue to be the case this week.  Dallas is not great vs. the run and he will get his usually opportunities because the Cowboys will still have to account for RG3.





                                                             UNDER

RB Arian Foster
RB Arian Foster (projected 22.38 fantasy points)-  The whole arrhythmia thing scares me with Foster.   The Texans claim he is 100%, but I don't think it would be wise for them to give him a full workload right off the bat.  I would not be surprised if they limit his touches, they are going to need him in the playoffs.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (projected 16.13 fantasy points)-  Bradshaw is not 100% healthy and the Eagles have been good vs. the run lately.  He will also share carries with Wilson.

TE Jimmy Graham (projected 15.80 fantasy points)-  Graham is playing with a wrist injury that has really limited his production this year.  He hasn't scored a touchdown in 5 games.  He was finally able to meet his projections last Sunday after falling short for the prior 4 weeks.  That's a good sign, but I wouldn't expect too much from him at this point.

WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Larry Fitzgerald (projected 13.34 fantasy points)-  Fitzgerald is a true professional, it amazes me how he has been able to keep cool with the debacle at the quarterback position for the Cardinals.  It's a shame to see such a good wide receiver go to waste.  Unfortunately I don't see things getting better for him vs. the Niners.  San Francisco has one of the leagues best defenses and will be pissed off after getting embarrassed by Seattle last week.

TE Tony Gonzalez (projected 12.55 fantasy points)-  Tampa Bay's secondary is horrible, but I just don't see any reason for Tony to play much in this game.  I don't think Atlanta will risk exposing him to the chance of injury when they will need him in the playoffs.

Good Luck to everyone playing in their finals this week!

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