Saturday, December 8, 2012

NFL Week 14 Fantasy Predictions: Top 5 Over/Under

My team has a bye the first week of the playoffs, so instead of doing my lineup for this week I figured I would give an over/under piece a shot.   Here are my top 5 picks for both over and under achievers in Yahoo standard leagues.

                                                                  Over

QB Russell Wilson
1. QB Russell Wilson (projected 15.73 fantasy points)- Wilson has been on fire lately and has scored more points then this projection in his last 5 games. He scored 28 points vs. a better defense in the Bears last week, I see no reason he can't continue to over achieve vs. Arizona.   The Cardinals don't have a bad defense, but they have to spend to way too much time on the field because of a horrendous offensive unit.
2. RB DeMarco Murray (projected 15.31 fantasy points)- Murray had a great game vs. the Eagles last Sunday after missing 6 games with a foot injury.  Since there were no reported setbacks impeding his recovery following that game, I would expect to see his workload increase a little this week.  The Bengals are not great against the run game, which the Cowboys will need to establish to keep the ball out of the Red Rifle's hands.
3. RB Bryce Brown (projected 16.42 fantasy points)- Brown has been one of the few bright spots on an atrocious Eagles team. Expect him to get the rock early and often in this one.  Tampa Bay is decent against the run, but so was Dallas.  If he can keep keep the ball secure, Brown should have another great game.
4. TE Owen Daniels (projected 10.48 fantasy points)-  Just a straight up, good matchup here. The New England defense is mediocre at best and has given up the second most fantasy points to tight ends this year.
5. K Lawrence Tynes (projected 7.90 fantasy points)-  When the Giants and the Saints play, expect a lot of points to be scored. The Saints defense has been historically bad this year. Although they have looked a little better of late, they do give up a lot of points to kickers.  Eli has had trouble reaching the end zone recently, so we could see a lot of Tynes.

                                                               Under

QB Aaron Rodgers
1. QB Aaron Rodgers (projected 30.15 fantasy points)- Now I'm not saying I expect Rodgers to have a bad game vs. the Lions, but when you start projecting a guy to score 30 points a game, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.  Detroit's D hasn't been great this year, but they do have a couple of the best pass rushers in the league. Green Bay's offensive line hasn't exactly been stellar either.
2. RB Darren Sproles (projected 14.32 fantasy points)-  The Giants had been tough against the run this year until recently.  Expect Tom Coughlin to right that ship this week.  Sproles also shares the back field with like 13 other guys...
3. WR Brian Hartline (projected 12.33 fantasy points)- rookie quarterback + San Francisco defense= NO POINTS FOR YOU!
4. RB Reggie Bush (projected 11.58 fantasy points)- Seriously though, San Francisco in their house is not a good matchup for any Dolphin. Reggie hasn't been the same since Laron Landry nuked him in week 3.  San Francisco has also given up the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.
5. RB Montell Owens (projected 13.10 fantasy points)-  I know that the Jet's defense is not what it used to be, but the chances that a 4th string running back who is really a fullback is gonna blow them up is pretty slim. Now if he also played cornerback then I would probably give him the 13 since Sanchez is starting...

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